Contributions
- Quantifies early prevalence of two core COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs: that the threat has been exaggerated (29%) and that the virus was intentionally created and spread (31%)
- Identifies psychological foundations of conspiracy beliefs independent of education level, suggesting motivational rather than informational sources
- Demonstrates that partisan cues from political elites (specifically Trump's messaging) strengthen conspiracy beliefs, particularly for politically attentive individuals
- Applies the "top-down" model of public opinion formation to COVID-19 misinformation
Method
Survey of 2,023 U.S. adults conducted March 17–19, 2020, via Qualtrics, matched to U.S. Census on demographics. Respondents rated agreement with two statements on a five-point Likert scale:
- "The threat of coronavirus has been exaggerated by political groups who want to damage President Trump"
- "Coronavirus was purposely created and released by powerful people as part of a conspiracy"
Predictors measured: conspiracy thinking (four-item validated scale), denialism (four-item scale of distrust in authoritative information and institutions), partisan identity, ideology, education, age, household income, gender, race/ethnicity. Two OLS regression models tested predictors of each conspiracy belief separately.
Results
Finding 1: Conspiracy beliefs widespread. 29% agree threat exaggerated, 31% agree virus created/spread on purpose.
Finding 2: Psychological predispositions are the strongest predictors (R² = 0.28 for threat exaggeration, R² = 0.40 for intentional spread). Conspiracy thinking and denialism dominate; education is uncorrelated with beliefs, ruling out information deficit as the primary mechanism.
Finding 3: Trump support predicts "threat exaggerated" belief. The effect is strongest among those who pay close attention to politics — a result consistent with elite cue theory: individuals who follow politics closely are more exposed to Trump's messaging and more likely to adopt cues from trusted leaders.
Finding 4: Partisan and ideological motivations differ between the two beliefs. For "threat exaggerated," partisanship and ideology are strong predictors (those supporting Trump believe the threat is exaggerated). For "virus created on purpose," conspiracy thinking dominates and partisan effects are minimal, suggesting this belief has broader cross-partisan appeal rooted in conspiratorial worldview rather than specific partisan messaging.
Notes
This is an early survey (mid-March 2020) capturing conspiracy beliefs during the acute initial uncertainty. The strength of conspiracy thinking as a predictor over education suggests these beliefs are driven by motivated reasoning and identity-protective cognition rather than simple ignorance. The finding that elite cues (Trump support) modulate conspiracy beliefs only for politically attentive individuals offers a pathway for intervention: reducing exposure to conspiratorial messaging from trusted elites. The paper notes that post-hoc correction attempts are unlikely to succeed when directed at individuals high in conspiracy thinking and denialism—a key insight for designing more effective interventions.